I just finished reading Thomas de Waal’s “Black Garden” which analyzes the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He supplies the reader with a mixture of historical context, first hand reporting, personal reflections of citizens and politicians, and his own observations about the future. My favorite anecdote: power outages ran are very common in the Caucusus but then were extremely lengthy during the winters in the early 90s due to the conflict. Armenian citizens heated water by hanging razor blades from metro lines and used the small amount of electric current to eventually bring the water to a boil.
From an outsiders perspective the situation seem incredibly frustrating and Waal’s description leaves all sides (including the West) looking irrational and myopic, with every community having justifiable grievances but a complete lack of empathy for the other’s, remarkably similar, complaints. Wall’s explanation of Armenian and Azerbaijani historians manipulations of ancient ethnography and hundreds of year old events gives insight into the sway of historians in modern politics/disputes. In the U.S. a degree in history is considered by some a waste of a liberal arts education; in the Caucusus, that profession makes you responsible for justifying military conflicts and the forced migration of entire populations through what are many times weak and shaky assertions.
The book was published in 2003 and now, almost 10 years later, it seems like little has changed. The Georgian times just posted an article in which analysts rate Karabakh as “the # 1 most likely place for war to break out in the next 10 years.”
“…Along the Line of Contact in Karabakh, the grim litany of skirmishes and deaths by sniper fire will rumble along. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are now deploying drones along the LoC, so expect the conflict to gain a new, aerial dimension (we’ve seen the first signs already). Sabre-rattling, military exercises and soaring defence budgets will all continue, but – as previously – don’t expect a new shooting war.”
Here is a short documentary that gives a some quick background into the conflict.
If you are interested in delving deeper into the dynamics and history of Karabakh and it’s conflicts, I suggest reading “Black Garden” (and taking notes).